Brad Tolkin is a guy who watches the cycles in the travel industry, always on the lookout for those seismic moments that may rock the boat of success for his company and the travel advisors affiliated with it. His take on 2024 for travel advisors? “Buckle up and go get ‘em,” he says. “It’s going to be a busy year.”
Indeed, Tolkin told the 1,000 attendees at the Dream Vacations/CruiseOne annual conference last week, “today we are witnessing another tremendous seismic moment,” the result of “the tailwind the pandemic has left us, plus the ability to work from anywhere, and the acceptance of this from employers. And this genie is never going back into the bottle.”
Make no mistake, Tolkin is steering one big boat. Known among travel advisors as the parent of Dream Vacations, CruiseOne, Villas of Distinction and Resort for a Day, Tolkin’s World Travel Holdings also owns the nation’s largest consumer cruise agency, CruisesOnly.com, and many other consumer sites. It handles bookings for Priceline, Hotwire, Orbitz, and BJs—plus Booking.com, an account they won just this week. In addition to its historical focus on cruise, WTH booked $200 million in land sales this year, double its 2019 land bookings and $1.6 billion total sales.
So the good news is that even a careful guy like Tolkin doesn’t see any big causes for concern in 2024—not high interest rates nor the fact that it will be an election year, not even war in the Middle East. For most travel advisors, he says, the big issue—certainly for Q1 but also into the rest of the year—will be finding inventory to sell. Especially among contemporary brands.
The fighting in the Middle East may well push customers toward Western Europe or even closer to home, to Mexico and the Caribbean and Alaska, he says. But the customers still are coming; the prices still are holding; the ships still are filling.
“The biggest thing I’m looking at is pricing. That would be the first indication that hard asset owners are seeing some change,” Tolkin told TRO in our private interview onboard Carnival Celebration, where the conference was held. “This is the most perishable inventory in the world; when that plane flies, when that ship sails, they can never sell it again. So I watch pricing very closely.”
On the land side, he foresees healthy transaction volumes; “we’re seeing 8, 9, 10% price increases and that may go down to low single digits or flatten. But demand is there, at a price the consumer is willing to pay.” Luxury cruise pricing also is moderating from its high growth. But in the contemporary lines—Royal Caribbean, Norwegian and Carnival—he still sees strength.
Indeed, he said, this year’s conference theme of Focus is a timely one. With so much business coming down the pike, Tolkin’s advice for travel advisors is the plan he himself follows: Focus on your strengths. Find a niche and stick to it. Charge a fee for your time (WTH charges $24.95 per booking on its websites. “If you book a lot of volume,” he said, “it adds up.”) Set two clear goals—one budgeted goal and one stretch goal. Eliminate distractions (he goes into the office four days a week). Visualize your success and, of course, “know your ship.”
“The dance between financial constraints and the desire to travel continues—and travel wins out,” Tolkin said. Forty-eight percent of people have restructured their budgets so they can travel; 49% of US citizens expect to travel more in 2024; and travel is outstripping all other segments of the economy.
“We are in the hottest industry right now. Our time has come.”
Great Ideas and Good Lines
When you sail for a week with 1,000 smart travel advisors and their suppliers, you can’t help but learn something. Here are some great ideas and good lines that flew past me:
Jen Alteide and four of her fellow franchisees are working together on a full-ship charter with AmaWaterways. “As an individual it’s hard,” she said, “but having five strong women with different strengths working together…” With a huge increase in Instagram customers, she is focusing on the data behind conversions: how long does it take to convert from an inquiry to a phone call, then to a proposal sent, then how long until we get the credit card? “That’s what we look at on a daily basis. Where are we stalling? What can we do to speed the closing of business?”
Susan Essert has been turning to public speaking to get her name out, doing a few spots on a local TV station, and speaking at wedding shows and events. At about $1.2 million in sales, she is focusing on Virgin Voyages right now; “it’s such a different product,” she says.
Barbara Linebarger charged her first consultation fees, $150 each for two calls, to a client who just wanted advice and not help with a booking.
As ever, Gary Smith is a data guy, taking a very analytical approach to tracking ROI but also mindful of the promise of “RND,” where you “rip off and duplicate” other people’s good ideas. With a model based on full-time employees, he has to make enough every month to cover payroll—which he tracks, among other ways, by keeping a sharp eye on the number of hours it takes to close a sale. “It it’s under seven we’re healthy; if it’s five we’re very healthy.”
Jason Newquist kept to his focus of sailing the world and posting videos on YouTube to build his business, landing him in the #1 spot for top-selling franchise, the second year in a row. Newquist is barely involved with customers and bookings; he has a team that handles that for him.
Autumn Trussell-Murray has been using Loom to help train her new associates. She records videos of herself working on the computer and shares them so others can watch, edit, and pause them to follow along. Ray and Joy Teet took a more hands-on approach and invited new associates to their office to shadow Joy for half a day.
The HQ team will be looking to land and luxury in 2024, both growing niches for franchisees. There will be a Land Forum in Mexico and a Luxury Focus Group to talk about what they need and what fams they should be, said SVP Debbie Fiorino. WTH also will be sharing $2 million in promotional funds for franchisees to share with customers, as well as doing more national advertising, like its Times Square bulletin board this year. SVP Drew Daley said the company also will focus on more in-person events, but also add a virtual Luxury Summit to the existing sold-out one and offer more luxury travel opportunities. That will give more franchisees the chance to attend and allow WTH to expand the number of experts involved. In all, there will be five live summits, five regionals and the annual conference. “We want to be in person,” Daley said.
Carnival CEO Christine Duffy spoke to Tolkin’s point, noting that “we are really well booked; in 2023 we are pretty much sold out. You can help us, and it’s a great opportunity for you, by telling your customers they have to plan ahead and book now if they want the best price, and the longer you wait the more expensive it will get.” Her inside tip on the best meal onboard? The Peking duck at Chibang, hand-carved at tableside. (And yes, I agree. It’s amazing and beautiful. And Instagrammable.)
Cheryl’s 40-year career in journalism is bookended by roles in the travel industry, including Executive Editor of Business Travel News in the 1990s, and recently, Editor in Chief of Travel Market Report and admin of Cheryl Rosen’s Group for Travel Professionals, a news and support group on Facebook. As an independent contractor since retiring from the 9-to-5 to travel more, she has written regular articles about the life and business of travel agents for Luxury Travel Advisor, Travel Agent, and Insider Travel Report. She also writes and edits for professional publications in the financial services, business, and technology sectors.
