When you get an email under the subject “In 5 to 10 years, forget southern Europe in summer,” you just have to read it.
Indeed, James Thornton makes some interesting—and timely—points in the message he sent me. “In 5 to 10 years, I think it will prove challenging to travel around southern Europe during July and August,” the Melbourne-based CEO of Intrepid Travel said. “Most people just won’t want to, it will be far too hot.”
Against the backdrop of heatwaves and fires in the Mediterranean countries, particularly in Athens and Rome, many tour operators are changing their itineraries, and travelers are planning more vacations in April, May and June, or September and October, Thornton said. From January 2022 to April 2023, he noted, 76 of Intrepid’s tours (roughly one per week) were disrupted in some way because of climate-related events, including fires, flash floods, landslides, tornados and volcanic events.
“I think we’re all being surprised by how quickly these climate impacts have taken hold and how extreme they are,” Thornton told TRO. “Climate will help control the overtourism in these places; it’s naturally going to change our behavior, and trips will be rerouted in places where we normally go. Still, Intrepid’s position is that some places will have to adapt.”
Of course, some destinations will always be on travelers’ bucket lists, heat or no heat. Italy has been “incredibly popular” this year, despite the overtourism. Even there, though, Intrepid is seeing travel advisors help move their customers to shoulder season. The company already has record bookings for September and October 2023 and April 2024.
Climate also has begun creeping into decisions about where to travel. Intrepid is looking at Eastern Europe, Albania, Pakistan, Northern Finland, Japan. “For 2025 we’re building itineraries in places that are not on many bucket lists: Albania, Southeast Asia, Africa, those second-tier less busy places,” Thornton said. “Eastern Europe has fantastic countries that haven’t seen tourists yet. And there always will be people who want Italy, so we are looking at Umbria, at smaller villages where you can go sit in a restaurant and have locals sitting next to you and not tourists.”
As for the hot months, travel advisors should follow Intrepid’s model of “getting groups up early and keeping them in the shade, and trying to wrap up by midday so they can stay by the pool.” Be aware too that a packed square in the sun can feel hotter than a US town; “100 in Rome is not the same as 100 in Southern California,” he says.
As travel shifts to less well-known destinations, it’s more important than ever for customers to book early, before accommodations sell out, and for travel advisors to use reputable tour operators. It’s especially important to choose a reliable travel insurance company, and to understand what exactly is covered by travel insurance, whether they define weather as an “unforeseen circumstance,” and what happens when the airline cancels but the tour does not. (If you book through a packaged tour that includes flights, Thornton notes, the whole holiday will be covered.)
In this environment, travel advisors are “super important. They encourage customers to challenge their bucket list; they understand what they are selling and when is the best time to go, who is an accredited supplier, and when and where to travel.” And they get out there and see the destinations they sell for themselves.
Travel advisors Wait for Change
For travel advisors planning groups and meetings, it might be time to take the changing weather into consideration, says meetings industry consultant Joan Eisenstodt. “Will it mean fewer outdoor activities? THAT may happen. This is why site and destination selection IS more than brain surgery!” Another consideration is transportation; where it “once was thought to be okay to walk blocks between hotels and convention centers, now will transportation be needed to ensure safety from heat?”
The heat also is likely to impact short trips, as it wreaks havoc on airline schedules, Eisenstodt notes. “People traveling to a weekend destination or a three-day meeting are going to rethink going if they are paying attention.”
Indeed, some travel advisors are reporting the beginning of a shift, though of course it’s hard to pinpoint the cause.
“Out of the heat and into the ice: Greenland. Svalbard. Iceland. Alaska. Penguins and polar bears have never been more in demand,” says Jennifer Reynolds of the eponymous agency. “Ice is trending as the cool place to go these days.”
Karen Shelton has “more and more families wanting to avoid Europe in the summer,” and Kathy Dusenberry has “an extremely busy fall Europe for my retired clients.”
“I booked the hell out of Alaska this year that’s for sure,” says Jay Dill.
“I have actually been discussing it with my clients: Greece in March,” says Phillip Archer.
But mostly, travel advisors say, if a shift is coming, it isn’t here yet.
Many are not convinced the heat is behind the popularity of the new destinations, for example. Says Ernie Breedlove, “I believe Iceland is trending as an adventure, exotic, and over the past three years well-marketed, bucket list item, not due to global warming. Some eco-travelers may be doing that but they have to realize they are damaging the pristine vistas they came to see, so there’s that.”
In his “biggest year ever in 34 years,” with sales already at 90% of what they were last year, Mark Elie’s customers “are still looking at Europe for next year even though it’s hotter than Hades,” he says.
“Places like Italy and Greece are high destinations because they are places people want to go. Italy has been the number-one destination forever and ever, and if you go in the summer it’s going to be blistering hot. But it isn’t making a difference yet, and I don’t foresee that changing in 5 or 10 years,” says Mike Edic, whose sales “are through the roof” in this, the best year ever for his business. “What will change is that they may look at different times because of the weather or to avoid the crowds. But then the offseason could be rainy or overcast; you can’t try to plan your vacation around the weather because who knows what the weather’s going to do. Mexico is very hot this summer but if people want to go somewhere bad enough, they’re going to go regardless of the weather. And families and teachers who are off in the summer are not going to change their patterns in any case.”
Ami Greener agrees that “people interested in the classical popular places like Spain, Italy, Greece will just go in fall or spring. Northern Europe (and Greenland, Svalbard) offer quite different vacations, usually more expensive and more of a nature/adventure kind of tour. And they have way less lodging capacity.”
At Intrepid Travel, meanwhile, the coming months will bring webinars on sustainability for travel advisors, and next month the company will launch a system that allows consumers to rate the carbon footprint of their trips. They also are looking at the carbon footprint of their own trips, encouraging travel advisors and customers to “support local communities instead of flopping in big hotels, stay in small boutiques, and get out to eat like a local and understand the community and its culture.”
Historically seen as a youth brand, Intrepid’s immersive small-group trips are proving a hit with higher-end customers with a median age in the 60s. “We just can’t build those quick enough,” he says.
Cheryl’s 40-year career in journalism is bookended by roles in the travel industry, including Executive Editor of Business Travel News in the 1990s, and recently, Editor in Chief of Travel Market Report and admin of Cheryl Rosen’s Group for Travel Professionals, a news and support group on Facebook. As an independent contractor since retiring from the 9-to-5 to travel more, she has written regular articles about the life and business of travel agents for Luxury Travel Advisor, Travel Agent, and Insider Travel Report. She also writes and edits for professional publications in the financial services, business, and technology sectors.